NIQ and World Data Lab say consumer spending is splitting into premium and value camps

New research from NIQ and World Data Lab says age is no longer the best predictor of shopping behavior as consumers increasingly toggle between premium and value choices. The report points to a growing barbell market, with affluent and value tiers gaining ground while middle-market products face more pressure.

Why it matters: - Consumer spending is polarizing around two poles: premium products that clearly justify a higher price and value products that help households save. - That shift is putting pressure on traditional middle-market offerings across categories. - The pattern cuts across generations, which makes age-based marketing less reliable for brands and retailers.

What happened: - NIQ and World Data Lab released A Tale of Two Consumers: The Polarized Mindsets Reshaping Global Consumption. - The report says consumers across age groups are increasingly switching between premium and value-seeking behavior based on category, occasion and need. - NIQ tied the findings to earlier generational spending work, including Spend Z and The X Factor. - The release was issued in Vienna, Austria, on Aug. 12, 2026.

The details: - World Data Lab projects Gen X accounted for $15.2 trillion in spending in 2025. - World Data Lab forecasts Gen Z spending power will reach $12 trillion globally by 2030. - In advanced economies, the core middle-class population is projected to shrink 7% over the next decade as more consumers move into the affluent class. - In emerging markets, core consumer populations are expected to grow 65% in Africa, 37% in Emerging Asia and 16% in Latin America. - Emerging Asia is expected to overtake advanced economies in total consumer spending in 2027 for the first time. - The report says 657 million affluent consumers now outspend more than 4 billion core middle-class consumers. - In advanced economies by 2036, affluent consumers are projected to drive the majority of spending in four of five select categories, up from three today. - Affluent share in soft drinks is expected to rise from 49% to 54%. - Affluent share in alcohol is expected to rise from 56% to 60%. - Affluent share in healthcare and OTC is expected to rise from 62% to 66%. - Affluent share in consumer tech and durables is expected to rise from 68% to 72%. - Affluent share in confectionery and snacks is expected to rise from 42% to 48%. - NIQ said it operates in more than 90 countries, covers about 82% of the world’s population and more than $7.4 trillion in global consumer spend. - World Data Lab said it models consumer trends and demographic change through 2050 across 99.5% of the world’s population, 190+ countries, 9,000+ cities and 200+ spending categories. - World Data Lab said its core methodology was cited by Nature as one of the 50 most influential papers of the decade. - The report offers the full forecast at the full report.

Between the lines: - The report argues the biggest shift is behavioral, not generational. - That means a Gen X parent and a Gen Z shopper may make similar trade-offs in different categories. - The “barbell effect” is strengthening as demand concentrates at the premium and value ends of the market. - Brands that sit in the middle may need clearer pricing, positioning or product justification to stay relevant.

What's next: - NIQ and World Data Lab expect affluent consumers to keep expanding their spending power in advanced economies. - Emerging markets are likely to remain the main source of growth for mass-market consumption. - Brands and retailers will need to serve both a fast-growing affluent tier and a fast-rising mass-market base at the same time. - Product strategies that rely on one-size-fits-all generational assumptions are likely to become less effective.

The bottom line: - Consumers are not spending less. They are spending more selectively, and that is reshaping the global market around premium and value with less room for the middle.